Jun. 17 at 5:58 PM
What if the
$IRWD endgame is a simultaneous two party transaction?
$ABBV acquires the Linzess business. They already hold the NDA and run the commercial operation on a franchise generating over
$1.2B annually with tiered exclusivity through 2029 to 2031. At a conservative 3x to 4x IRWD annual profit participation that implies a
$900M to
$1.2B Linzess transaction, roughly
$6 to
$8 per share. A separate acquirer, a
$TAK , Novo Nordisk or GLP-2 platform hungry large cap, acquires apraglutide. The Lilly sonefpeglutide comp sets the floor at
$1.26B, a differentiated platform asset in the identical class could fetch
$2B or more, adding another
$12 per share. Shareholders receive proceeds from both transactions on a now clean balance sheet. Combined that is a realistic
$18 to
$20 per share in a simultaneous deal scenario. While the valuations are admittedly on the optimistic end of the range, both assets have clear strategic value and logical buyers. Thoughts?
