Apr. 6 at 12:43 PM
Raymond James identified ten banks that could benefit if the Federal Reserve delivers fewer rate cuts in 2026 than previously expected, as market expectations have shifted amid rising energy prices.
At the start of 2026, markets were pricing in 50–75 bps of additional cuts following 175 bps of easing since September 2024. That view has now shifted to almost no cuts by year-end, with some risk of rate hikes if inflation picks up again. The Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections points to just one 25 bps cut, versus the two to three cuts expected earlier.
Raymond James said asset-sensitive banks—particularly those with multiple cuts embedded in their guidance—could see upward revisions to earnings estimates and more positive outlooks if rates remain stable. The firm assessed upside by linking expected rate paths to net interest income sensitivity.
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