Aug. 19 at 4:00 AM
$PLBY If the company:
1. completes the 16.6M-share repurchase
2. stops issuing meaningful ATM shares
3. gets debt down toward
$100M
4. maintains ~
$25–30M EBITDA
5. simply proves that level is sustainable
then the market should begin removing the distressed-company discount.
Fair-value range
Roughly divide it this way:
$1.25–
$1.50: distressed/no-growth valuation
$1.75–
$2.25: reasonable normalized valuation
$2.50+: market starts valuing Playboy as a stable IP/licensing company rather than a distressed turnaround
So under the assumption — zero growth — the central fair value is around
$2.00/share, provided the debt really does come down substantially.
And here's the important part:
$2.50 does not require spectacular growth. At ~105M shares,
$2.50 is only about a
$263M equity capitalization. Add
$100M of debt and you're talking about an enterprise value around
$350M-ish depending on cash.
Against
$28M EBITDA that's roughly 12–13× EBITDA.
