Jan. 6 at 4:55 PM
$KIDS Starter allocation after getting pointed this way.
My/AI take or summary is:
Base case (2026–2027):
$28–32. Assumes 12–15% sustained revenue growth (post-2025 normalization), adjusted EBITDA margins expanding to 10–15% (from ~7% implied in 2025), and FCF turning positive. At 4–5x 2027 sales (~
$300–320M revenue), this reflects medtech growth multiples discounted for niche size.
• Bull case:
$40+. If bracing/clinics scale faster, new launches (e.g., rib/pelvic systems) accelerate share, and profitability hits earlier (e.g., 20%+ EBITDA margins by 2028), justifying 6x+ sales.
• Bear case:
$15–20. If growth slows below 10% (e.g., prolonged international issues, competition intensifies), or profitability delays persist.
The stock appears undervalued relative to growth/inflection (revenue doubling since 2023, profitability ramp), but requires patience for FCF proof. Long-term, the exclusive focus in an underserved, growing market supports upside if management executes.
