Aug. 18 at 10:13 PM
$HELP
@Solomonwisdom7 it may settle at 10-11 but I think far more likely to run to 15-22, perhaps as much as 25, pre phase 3 data simply because of the disparity between it and the mkt cap of peers. And due to its sheer momentum - it's very very strong. I know - I called the bottom at 3.80 and have watched it closely since while collecting large.
Yes, there are downside risks At The Point the phase 3 data actually lands (perhaps downside odds of 30-40 per cent likelihood if 1) weak data or 2) middling data - that does not meet mkt expectations). And again on CMPS approval decision (80 per cent likely approval). But on strong to knock out data it should rerate to peers at around
$1.5-
$3B (or more on the knock out end) giving a superb 2-4x or greater move - with excellent 60-70 per cent odds.
I'm not sure how large my position will be going in to the data release or the mix of it (shares/ options), but as I am in heavy I naturally am already hedged.
GL
