Curioustock
Posted - 16 hours ago
$UI Robert Pera
Curioustock
Posted - 17 hours ago
$UI the cash flow statement gives us an estimate that charge was around $18.5 million. So GM would have been 39.2% and EPS closer to 1.60 I think. I think we get back to $2 in EPS next quarter, which gets us back to the $8 annual EPS baseline rate we were supposed to have in 2023 before the supply shock/glut. I think we're back on trend, 20-25% CAGR, with 2025 looking like $10 EPS When do we get a multiple re-rating? I dont know if we get the 40xPE we used to command, because that was largely driven by the repurchases. But 20-30PE, meants we could move between 120-160 by for 2014 and 160-200 in 2025... If the new SKUs and protect do as well as I believe, I think we can hit 300 by the end of 2025 and breakout if UWC manages to execute with Roberts new focus. Given the new SKUs come out in Q4, we won't know until Q2-Q3 2025 if the Enterprise play is gaining traction. There are some tax obligations due in Q1 & Q2 2025/2026 for 25M (ish) per year. So yeah, could be some bumps on the road.
LookaLike
Posted - 18 hours ago
$PRSO buyout by $UI inevitable
smartkarma
Posted - 19 hours ago
$UI | UI: Signs of a Rebound
"UI reported fiscal Q3 (March) revenue in line with our forecasts highlighting its second consecutive quarter of sequential improvement even though peers have been finding it a tough environment" - Hamed Khorsand (BWS Financial Inc)
Key Points:
* UI reported fiscal third quarter (March) results in line with our revenue forecasts suggesting the business could be on the rebound after two years in a challenging environment
* The performance in the June quarter comes even though peers have been reporting a tough selling environment with extended sales process as customers took time to make their decision
* The increase in product availability did backfire in the quarter with Ubiquiti taking a charge for obsolete inventory. Nevertheless, Ubiquiti’s results show a business that is improving
Read more: https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ui-signs-of-a-rebound
Mom1
Posted - 22 hours ago
$UI This is Pera’s “Redemption Tour” 😎
Fullratio
Posted - 23 hours ago
$UI quick ratio has increased by 37% YoY and by 23% from the previous quarter: https://fullratio.com/stocks/nyse-ui/ubiquiti
JMONE1
Posted - 3 days ago
$UI I finally have gotten to the point where I like my average, and my position, enough to just let it be on auto pilot. It's nice to wake up to giant green spikes. Reminds me of the good Ole days. Now all we need is some Caffy love and we can get right back to 300
Cheers friends.
TriPragmatist
Posted - 3 days ago
$UI As an example of the terrible sector that UI was in the past quarter, $CMBM had a gross margin of -19.4%. Yes, that's a minus sign! They effectively had a "going out of business sale" selling product at less than cost to clear out their inventory. Ubiquiti had to compete in this awful environment and still made headway. BTW, Cambium said that their inventory should be at pre-pandemic levels by the end of June. They are clearly not focused on growing revenue but trying to get their GM back up while completing their inventory reduction effort.
Mom1
Posted - 3 days ago
$UI as of 4/15, there were 544k shares (over 13% of float) still short.
That is a lot of covering that will need to happen.
Costales
Posted - 3 days ago
$UI @Curioustock
battleready
Posted - 3 days ago
$ui now at a 3 month High. Just wait until it clears the 140 December High. I'm heading out to get one of these today.
Mom1
Posted - 3 days ago
$UI By the way, while I am here, I want to personally thank ( and on behalf of the long term investors…..you know who you are!) Curious for his frequent, detailed posts about the UI business. I have learned a lot from you. Thanks for committing your time to post.
Mom1
Posted - 3 days ago
$UI The bottom is in. Buckle up! Has anyone here discovered the podcast “Acquire”? Deep, geeky dives into various amazing companies. I really want to submit the idea of UI to these podcasters!
Curioustock
Posted - 4 days ago
$UI we don’t even have UDM pro Max, WiFi 7 SKUs, or the UDM Fortress firewall and much of WAVE line, or etherlighting (low stock) in this quarter and we’re back to growth.
I expect higher subscriptions to the support, Unifi hosting from Protect to make up for higher SG&A to start improving GM on new expenses as well.
European distributors are only getting Wave products in June according to pre-ordering from big distributors.
we get the tail wind of BEAD funding in Q1 that should push both Unifi/UISP Shipping costs are coming down now and Australian store is going to be added soon. Unifi protect is going to be huge now with large deployment capabilities and them now being competitive with symbology, shaving failover on UDM, UNVR stacking and NAS in beta. I expect a huge new business coming out of that, maybe 1B in revenue over the next 2 years from protect alone. you’re going to see every competitor struggling for the next 24 months while UI takes share - value/performance
TriPragmatist
Posted - 4 days ago
$UI Quote from Pera’s CC (if he had one): “I’m back!” 😜 Pera’s COVID hangover is gone!
More seriously, revenue growth is returning despite an ugly market where customers over ordered and manufacturers thought they were in a huge secular growth market and over built leaving inventory all over the place while customers cut back due to their own excess inventory. In the meantime, Pera over relied upon China, couldn’t get enough product, then over ordered all while moving more toward increasing his TAM by targeting larger enterprises screwing up his balance sheet. This quarter showed not only has Ubiquiti bottomed but it’s on the upswing. We’re back! I expect a nice 📈 over the next couple of years. Buy and hold. 💰
DonCorleone77
Posted - 4 days ago
$UI Ubiquiti reports Q3 EPS $1.28, consensus $1.56 Reports Q3 revenue $493M, consensus $479.64M. The company said, "During the third quarter fiscal 2024, GAAP net income was $76.3 million and non-GAAP net income was $77.6 million. This reflects a decrease in GAAP net income and non-GAAP net income from the comparable prior year period by 22.6% and 22.1%, respectively, primarily driven by lower gross profit, higher operating expenses and higher interest expense. Third quarter fiscal 2024 GAAP earnings per diluted share was $1.26 and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $1.28. This reflects a decrease in GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share from the comparable prior year period of 22.7% and 22.4%, respectively."
Curioustock
Posted - 4 days ago
$UI exactly as I predicted, strong revenue beat/growth in USA/Europe BUT EPS miss as expected as they invest in R&D, Marketing, Support, SG&A. "And incremental excess and obsolete inventory charges" Inventory is down substantially Debt is coming down. This is a great quarter for longer term investors to buy. N. America and Europe grew huge with Enterprise showing excellent sequential growth. Now if this is the worst quarter of the year then I am very happy. Stupid analysts had set the EPS at 1.79 with no room for inventory writedowns or increased R&D + marketing for Enterprise which is ridiculous. I expect EPS to start going up meaningfully however due remember, there will be the UWC costs incurred in the next quarter which is probably around $10M Not sure how the market reacts to this EPS number; but I saw it coming from a mile.
epsguid
Posted - 4 days ago
$UI reported earnings of $1.26, consensus was $1.77 via @eWhispers #epsmiss http://eps.sh/d/ui
Stock_Titan
Posted - 4 days ago
$UI Ubiquiti Inc. Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Results
https://www.stocktitan.net/news/UI/ubiquiti-inc-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-2024-financial-qd1uy5dr8g0u.html
Curioustock
Posted - 4 days ago
@nUme22 I have a tiny 2024 oct put as a hedge to my $UI long. They are historically a great company but they got distracted by enterprise and leveraged their business at the end of the IT cycle. Unlucky, I hope they don’t fail, but they have a lot of head winds. I won’t be long until they show a profitable quarter and they find an answer to Tarana and Enterprise.
Curioustock
Posted - 4 days ago
@godisrupt I expect a green close if we miss because everyone knows this is a trough quarter for the industry, and $UI revenue has held up the best, also there should be a big boost to sales next Quarter from UDM Pro Max and stock availability on newer products. Q4 is when we should start seeing acceleration from Protect and a comback in switching and WAVE line (still unvailable in europe due to product availability). Also 6Ghz and 60Ghz now approved so I expect those products to do well as well. SHould be a great summer for $UI
Curioustock
Posted - 4 days ago
$cmbm huge miss, lost almost $1, getting for another flat quarter with more losses ! Saying things are more normalized, but that’s a lie. They have nothing to compete with Tarana and they’re wasting their money trying to compete with $UI wave line that is an absolute smash hit, and they’re getting into crowded fiber. None of their lines are doing well, they need to cut their product lines and focus or they will bleed out by next year. Get ready for some BS from management on the call.
godisrupt
Posted - 4 days ago
$UI this stinks I have a feeling we may be able to shares under $100 and there’s no way to hedge. Hope I’m wrong.
Curioustock
Posted - 4 days ago
$COMM $UI $EXTR $CSCO saying that Enterprise didnt see the bottoming they hoped, and see Ruckus having to go through even more quarters before inventory normalizes. This is the first time a network architecture is pushing the recovery of enterprise out to 2025. Ruckus is a "quality" solution so I expect this to be a headwing for $CSCO and $HPE Theres too much competition and too much inventory.
Curioustock
Posted - 4 days ago
$COMM $UI reported Ruckus down 37%, just brutal. Enterprise is getting destroyed. but they "beat" expectations from burning cash. They are hanging on by a thread. If the market doesnt pick up by the next quarter, they are done. A lot of dead cat bounces in Enterprise this quarter, although they didnt have a 45% bounce before earnings like $CMBM I think both are toast and any strength will be faded over the next month. I am worried estimates of $UI are high at 1.67c and 492M for tomorrow. Given everything ive seen and all the marketing expenses for UWC (much of it might be in Q4) and support and shipping costs rising. Im not excited for the GM in Q3 as these analyst. Pray for a beat, but expecting a miss!
Curioustock
Posted - 6 days ago
@Scrat50 I’m holding $UI through earnings, I have even added in the low 100s recently.
I think they have some advantage with UDM/ULTRA/Protect tailwinds to keep revenues stable until the market comes back for APs/switching.
New Unifi Protect updates have also converted many Hikvision/Dahua users. Also $UI operates in SMB which is holding up It’s mostly enterprise I’m bearish on, which is not exactly Ubiquiti, I think if they miss, stock turns green like $EXTR and $CALX did, as both stated this was the worst quarter. I shorted a small amount of $CMBM as the got leveraged in Enterprise and Tarana eating their lunch and they have nothing special due to lack of focus (except government contracts), so I don’t see them recovering like the rest of the cohort. That said, I’m looking for strong (relative to the industry) revenue and a miss on EPS numbers (all the marketing for UWC and obsolete inventory, scaling support, R&D & new hires)
Costales
Posted - 6 days ago
$UI Reposting for visibility — it disappeared from my Ubiquiti feed.
Curioustock
Posted - 1 week ago
$UI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7W9sw9vmE4 Summary of Australia event
UncleStock
Posted - 1 week ago
$CLFD $CIEN $UI $CSCO suggested for Telecommunications Equipment - value screen: https://zpr.io/WLfZRfEVYjSR
Curioustock
Posted - 1 week ago
$UI did I wake up at 4 am for nothing?